Picture a world where half the planet’s cattle ranches simply aren’t there anymore. Where does all that land go? What do farmers grow instead? And who wins or loses in the process? A major new analysis in Nature finally puts real numbers behind those questions.

The team modeled what would happen if the world actually switched to sustainable diets, rather than sticking with business as usual. The results are dramatic: cattle production could fall by half by 2050. The amount of land devoted to farming fruits, vegetables, nuts, and legumes could rise by 1.5 million square kilometers—more than twice the area of France—while the land area used to farm wheat, corn, rice, and other grains might fall by a similar amount.

The goal was “to recognize, a little more honestly, what would be the magnitude of these changes,” says Daniel Mason-D’Croz, an economist at Cornell University and one of three lead authors on the study. And importantly, “what kind of disruptions and dislocations it would mean for [food] producers?”

The work grew out of a string of findings over the past few years. In 2018, a team that included Mason-D’Croz predicted the environmental footprint of global food production would grow 50 to 90% by 2050, driven by growing populations, rising wealth, and more meat-eating. They also found that staying within planetary boundaries would take multiple fixes at once: less food waste, better agricultural technologies, and worldwide dietary change. Around the same time, the EAT-Lancet commission reported that eating less meat and more plants would cut rates of obesity, diabetes, heart disease, and some cancers—while also helping the planet.

So what does the reshuffled map actually look like? They found that by 2050, reduced livestock farming would free up vast stretches of grassland unsuitable for most crops—land that might go to wind or solar power, rewilding, or other uses. Production of sugar crops, such as cane, could drop by roughly a third. Some farming would shift to entirely new locations, depending on the crops and the health of local soils and water supplies. Prices of meats, dairy, and grains could fall by 15 to 30 percent, while those of fruits, vegetables, nuts and legumes might rise a few percentage points.

“The challenges are really big,” says Mason-D’Croz—and if the food transition is to succeed, it will need to address them. “Livestock is a really important source of income in rural communities,” he says, citing one example. Any food transition will need to find new pathways and futures those local economies. “If you ignore these things, you probably won’t have the political will to make some of these changes.”

Gibson, et al. “Food systems transformation would reshape global agriculture.” Nature. 2026.

Image: ©Anthropocene Magazine